D031

Risk Calibration

BD03 Decision, Judgment & Epistemics
Derived LayerMML-2

Version v1.2.4

Definition

The accuracy with which perceived risk (probability × impact) matches real risk, and behavior is scaled accordingly.

Poles

Each HES element is a spectrum, not a category: the Low and High poles describe how it presents at its two extremes, while the Reference marks the typical, everyday middle. The poles map variation across the range — neither end is inherently better or worse.

Low Pole

Systematic miscalibration: chronic underestimation (recklessness) or overestimation (paralysis), with mismatched actions.

High Pole

Perception and action are proportionate to actual risk; distinguishes low-probability/high-impact from high-probability/low-impact.

Reference

Calibrated in routine cases, but distorted under emotion, status pressure, or novelty.

Measure

Accuracy: match between predicted risk and observed outcomes over time.
• Calibration: gap between confidence about risk and correctness.

Measuring Methods

Prediction tracking (probability estimates + outcomes); scenario judgments; decision audits comparing estimates to base rates.

Empirical Anchor

Risk calibration / risk perception accuracy (Slovic, 1987); calibration of subjective probabilities; DOSPERT (Weber et al., 2002).

Notes

Not “cautiousness.” Someone can be bold yet well-calibrated.

Citation

APA

Human Elements System. (2026). Risk Calibration (HES Passport D031, v1.2.4). hestable.com. https://hestable.com/passport/D031

BibTeX

@misc{hes_D031, author = {{Human Elements System}}, title = {{Risk Calibration}}, year = {2026}, note = {HES Passport D031, v1.2.4}, howpublished = {\url{https://hestable.com/passport/D031}} }